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    Global economy

    Yesterday

    A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

    Market gyrations reflect fears about the unwinding of QE

    Bountiful free money is not a “normal” state of affairs, and the sooner investors realise this the better. And that includes central bankers.

    • Gillian Tett

    This Month

    Nasdaq

    Market panic risks dragging down global growth, economists warn

    Analysts say economies in the US and elsewhere are not “nosediving”, but they flag the threat of “self-fulfilling” investor jitters.

    • Delphine Strauss
    Electric vehicles bound for shipment to Europe at the Port of Taicang, in China.

    Shouldn’t the world thank China for producing too much stuff?

    If trade policy were about consumers, the US and EU would thank China for its cheap EVs, batteries and solar panels and its contribution to lowering carbon emissions.

    • Gary Hufbauer

    July

    The third consecutive contraction in manufacturing activity showed  there’s still uncertainty about the strength of the recovery.

    China factory activity shrinks for third straight month

    The official PMI index hit 49.4. The gauge has stayed below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction for all but three months since April 2023.

    • Updated
    • Shinjini Datta and Zhu Lin

    China’s low-tech manufacturers hanging on by their fingernails

    China is shifting more to high-tech and EV manufacturing as its clothing, toy and furniture factories struggle against anaemic orders, trade restrictions and competition.

    • William Langley
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    Presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives for the final day of the Republican National Convention.

    What is Trumponomics 2.0, and how will Australia manage it?

    Some of Donald Trump’s new economic plans may help Canberra. Most of them will leave us more alone in increasingly volatile world markets.

    • Susan Stone
    The question of a September rate cut is ‘wide open’, says ECB president Christine Lagarde.

    We don’t know when rates will be cut again, ECB says

    European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde says the question of an interest rate cut in September is “wide open”, and dependent on data.

    • Hans van Leeuwen
    Shareholders will back growth stories, but only if they trust management can deliver them.

    How to play higher interest rates for longer in equities

    Our super funds made two things clear: rates are likely to be higher for longer and equities are back in fashion. We ask some stock pickers to name their calls.

    • Anthony Macdonald
    Productivity growth in the EU’s big four economies has collapsed.

    Why Europe is becoming poorer than America

    Oversized governments in Britain and on the Continent have crushed productivity growth, allowing US incomes to grow twice as fast.

    • Ruchir Sharma
    Supporters of Marine Le Pen celebrate National Rally’s result.

    When the numbers just don’t add up

    MAGA in the US and National Rally in France are both making voters big economic promises, but their ideas have some massive holes, writes Paul Krugman.

    • Paul Krugman
    Residential buildings in Shanghai, where the cap on prices of new homes has been relaxed.

    China’s home sales downturn slows after cities ease policy

    The turn in the trajectory of new home sales may offer some relief for China’s economy, which is on track to undershoot the official growth target this year.

    • Jeanny Yu and Tian Ying

    June

    Marine Le Pen after a press conference in Paris this week.

    France’s election could trigger market shockwaves, BoE warns

    The Bank of England’s alert comes before Sunday’s first round of voting. Polls now show the populist right potentially closing in on a parliamentary majority.

    • Hans van Leeuwen
    Li Qiang led the call for trade openness and decried protectionism.

    China’s ‘Summer Davos’ highlights corporate anxiety over tariffs

    A surge of cheap exports and industrial production supported by the government has propelled China’s economy this year. That’s prompted a pushback from trading partners.

    • Katia Dmitrieva and Lucille Liu
    China’s June 18 festival has proven just how hard it is to get consumers spending.

    China’s unhappy consumers have even given up on shopping sales

    E-commerce sales declined for the first time during the “618 festival” this year, reflecting pressures on retailers already locked in a gruelling price war.

    • Casey Hall
    French protesters take to the streets to oppose Marine Le Pen’s electorally victorious National Rally.

    ECB, Le Pen call for calm on turmoil-hit French markets

    France’s stock and bond ructions eased after the European Central Bank counselled calm, and Marine Le Pen sought to reassure spooked investors.

    • Updated
    • Hans van Leeuwen
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    Raphael Arndt.

    World is looking ‘more like the 1930s’, Future Fund warns

    Australia’s sovereign wealth fund chief is reshaping its $200b portfolio as global risks hit a 50-year high.

    • Jonathan Shapiro
    Competitors take part in the annual dragon boat race to celebrate the Tuen Ng festival in Hong Kong.

    China’s broken housing market and a generation ‘lying flat’

    While wallets were open at last weekend’s national Dragon Boat Festival, Chinese consumers are still not spending enough to get the economy out of its housing hole.

    • Jessica Sier
    Elvira Nabiullina, head of Russia’s central bank

    Why peacetime will be a problem for Putin’s banker

    For Elvira Nabiullina, head of Russia’s central bank, demilitarisation could trigger the economic meltdown she’s worked so hard to prevent.

    • Kate de Pury
    Police clear the streets during clashes with anti-government protesters outside the Argentinian Congress in Buenos Aires.

    Argentine Senate passes Milei reform bill as protests rage outside

    The bill is key to overhauling an embattled economy, and includes plans for privatising public firms, granting special powers to the president and spurring investment.

    • Nicolás Misculin and Eliana Raszewski
    Chinese flock to Nanjing Road shopping district in Shanghai. Consumer prices have edged up.

    China’s mild inflation fails to quell fears over weak demand

    May inflation figures point to a mixed picture for the economy as domestic consumption picks up slightly.

    • Zhu Lin