Today
- Opinion
- Monetary policy
Central banks need true transparency not fake consensus
The Bank of England isn’t afraid to advertise its differences. That is better for creating trust than the obsession with a united front at the US Fed.
July
- Opinion
- UK election
UK needs ‘moonshot’ growth agenda
After so many years of insufficient investment and sagging productivity, there is no singular, silver-bullet reform to achieve buoyant, durable, sustainable and inclusive economic growth.
June
- Opinion
- Monetary policy
Fed needs to cut interest rates sooner not later
The delay by the US central bank in easing monetary policy could jeopardise a soft economic landing.
May
- Opinion
- Global economy
Why the world won’t respond to shocks as it did before
The world economy is fragmenting, with countries going in different directions. They will not react to frequent violent changes in the same ways.
April
- Opinion
- Global economy
Markets are a frog in boiling water on Iran-Israel
The latest round of Iran-Israel hostilities has crossed many lines and durably raised the geopolitical temperature in the region. Yet markets seem keen to brush this aside.
March
- Opinion
- Inside China
Shaky China is not a long-term bet for investors
The world’s second-largest economy faces a clear and present danger of falling into the middle-income trap.
February
- Opinion
- Inflation
Inflation sell-off is a wake-up call for traders
Markets had embraced, with too little critical thinking, the narrative of a quasi-automatic, very soft landing leading to both large and early Fed rate cuts.
January
- Opinion
- Monetary policy
Global faith in the central bank lever is misplaced
Markets and commentators are buoyant in expectation of interest rate cuts this year. But they are overestimating how much power central banks really have over economic outcomes.
December 2023
- Opinion
- Monetary policy
The Fed should resist market bullying
The risk is that, to avoid unsettling market volatility, the Fed validates the market loosening with sizeable rate cuts but is forced to reverse course later.
- Opinion
- Global economy
Upbeat predictions for global economy are not cause for optimism
The main concern is that too many policymakers seem more focused on reinvigorating inefficient growth engines than shifting towards more sustainable, forward-looking models.
November 2023
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Federal Reserve officials talk too much
It’s no wonder forecasters and traders show little hesitation in consistently ignoring the central bank’s guidance, including for policy rates.
October 2023
- Opinion
- Federal Reserve
The Fed pivot that turbulent Treasuries need
At a minimum, US policymakers need to shift from backward-looking data to combining data dependency with a clearly articulated economic vision.
August 2023
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Good news on US inflation comes with an asterisk
While there is certainly a lot to like in the latest CPI report, there is also need for greater care in simply extrapolating its path.
- Opinion
- Bonds
What US Treasury volatility means for the economy
While the shifts in yields on US government debt are likely to diminish, Mohamed El-Erian argues they will not disappear.
- Opinion
- Globalisation
The world economy can’t just muddle through any longer
China’s mishandling of the post-global era finally shows that a fresh model is needed.
- Opinion
- Global economy
There’s nothing comforting about the global economic outlook
Signs of apparent convergence are multiplying in economic and financial domains. We should do our utmost to moderate the pull of the reassuring narrative.
- Updated
July 2023
- Opinion
- Inflation
Just blaming wage growth for inflation is misleading and dangerous
The UK inflation debate now focuses excessively on wage-push inflation, where providers of goods and services pass on higher wage costs to consumers. This is unfortunate.
- Updated
- Opinion
- Monetary policy
This is why central banks need more scrutiny
June was a tough month for the masters of monetary policy. And in the face of a stubborn trilemma of challenges, they need help to restore credibility.
June 2023
- Opinion
- Monetary policy
Fed poised to give ‘muddled’ rate decision
A ‘skip’ at this week’s policy-setting meeting may be the worst of three imperfect policy options.
May 2023
- Opinion
- Monetary policy
Why the US Fed is losing its way
The world’s leading central bank is hard to predict because it lacks a solid strategic policy framework and was overtaken by events.
