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    Stephen Miller

    Former advisor Paul Keating

    Stephen Miller is a former Treasury Officer who served on the personal staff of the then Treasurer Paul Keating from 1985-87.

    Stephen Miller

    Yesterday

    Volatility is the new black in equities markets.

    Time to panic or the correction we had to have?

    Investors’ hope for a Goldilocks scenario all came unstuck last week. But rather than succumb to hysteria, it’s better to recalibrate risk appetite.

    June

    The May CPI indicator suggests that “a lot” is going the other way.

    The RBA is walking a tightrope between inflation and jobs

    As Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser said on Thursday, it’s a mistake to change policy on one piece of data. But it is an egregious folly to ignore serial indications of sticky inflation.

    April

    Reserve Bank governor Michelle Bullock.

    The RBA is still threading the needle

    The Reserve Bank’s next policy move is more likely to be a rate cut despite the evidence seen in the stronger than expected March inflation figures, says GSFM’s Stephen Miller.

    RBA governor Michele Bullock has warned that unless productivity growth picks up, the journey back to the inflation target could take longer than expected.

    It’s a long and winding path that leads to a rate cut

    The reality is there is still some way to go as the RBA balances the challenge of reducing inflation while keeping the economy ticking.

    February

    Expect RBA governor Michele Bullock to drop a tightening bias in the statement on Tuesday.

    Expect a ‘verbal pivot’ from the RBA but no imminent rate cuts

    A reduction in the cash rate some time this year is plausible, but there is still some distance to travel before arriving at any imperative decision.

    October 2023

    Treasurer Jim Chalmers releasing the employment white paper.

    Chalmers must do more on IR to reach full employment

    Sooner or later, the treasurer will need to translate the worthy ambitions of the employment white paper into a clear set of actionable policy prescriptions.