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    Steven Hamilton

    Economist

    Steven Hamilton is assistant professor of economics at George Washington University and visiting fellow at the Tax and Transfer Policy Institute at the ANU.

    Steven Hamilton

    Yesterday

    Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock: If her word is her bond, then it’s been downgraded to junk.

    Reserve Bank has finally taken the inflation crisis seriously

    The consumer price index reading gave the RBA an out. Instead, governor Michele Bullock’s tough talk dumped cold water on a rate cut any time soon.

    June

    If you need external validation of these basic economics, look no further than the opposition’s own announcement.

    Nuclear is unviable because of economics, not engineering

    Even if all that mattered was the cheapest possible energy that meets minimum levels of reliability and emissions, the Coalition’s plan fails.

    In speaking about the March quarter national accounts last Wednesday, Treasurer Jim Chalmers continued to demonstrate a disappointing proclivity for spin over substance.

    Jim Chalmers is a doctor of spin, not economics

    The treasurer has talked down the economy to defend the expansionary nature of his budget decisions when what we need now, more than ever, is straight talking.

    If the energy rebates are indeed successful in lowering CPI inflation back into the target band, the board will face huge pressure to ease monetary policy.

    Reserve Bank must restore credibility and not buy into energy rebate trickery

    A year out from an election and amid Labor’s overhaul of the institution, a temporary mechanical reduction in the CPI has the potential to interfere with the RBA’s independent conduct of monetary policy.

    May

    For more than a year, the government has claimed subsidising energy bills reduces inflation.

    Why you can’t argue the $300 energy rebate will lower inflation

    Energy bill relief increases real disposable income and boosts aggregate demand. We can debate how far they push inflation, but not that the direction is up.

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    A better than expected economy, lower than forecast unemployment, and sticker than wanted inflation set up a diabolical task for Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ third budget in May.

    This is the most irresponsible budget in recent memory

    The government set itself a simple standard: not to make the Reserve Bank’s job harder. Michele Bullock may just choke on her cornflakes.

    • Updated
    Jim Chalmers and Michele Bullock have no one to blame. They should have seen what was happening in the US.

    Governor and treasurer share blame for sticky inflation

    Michele Bullock and Jim Chalmers had fair warning about the need for decisive action.

    April

    Negative gearing is not a rort or a tax concession

    Negative gearing is said to single-handedly be responsible for Australia’s housing crisis. But it is a principled, fair and efficient feature of any tax system.

    July 2023

    Michele Bullock in Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s office on Friday.

    Bullock’s crucial role will be renovating a national institution

    The new Reserve Bank of Australia governor’s job is not to be the smartest economist in the room. It’s to recruit those who are.

    June 2023

    Anticipating Tuesday’s rate hike, the Treasurer continued to deflect on Monday.

    Chalmers can’t keep passing the buck on inflation

    Energy subsidies are not disinflationary. The budget is expansionary. And the wages lever the government is pulling will also make the RBA’s job harder.

    May 2023

    Never mind the result, where’s the strategy?

    Why this is the most confounding budget of recent times

    How well did Jim Chalmers do on Tuesday night? A whole lot better than he could have. And a whole lot worse, too.

    Far from learning a lesson from the previous government’s budget, Jim Chalmers looks set to do it all over again.

    Chalmers can’t have his inflation cake and eat it too

    To see through the Treasurer’s subterfuge, simply ask yourself: will the cost of living measures put money into people’s pockets or remove it from them?

    April 2023

    Dr Lowe was seemingly oblivious to the implications for his leadership of the review panel’s scathing assessment of the RBA under his stewardship.

    Philip Lowe’s emperor-has-no-clothes moment

    The governor’s news conference on the Reserve Bank of Australia review was an unedifying performance for a public servant.

    Philip Lowe at the National Press Club lunch in Sydney last week.

    Is the RBA a dove or a chicken?

    Governor Phil Lowe cannot decry the evils of inflation while being prepared to engineer above-target levels of it for years. He needs to explain.

    March 2023

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg announce the Jobkeeper payment on March 30, 2020.

    JobKeeper was a big call to make. They got it right

    Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg announced JobKeeper three years ago today. For all its flaws, it produced one of the world’s most durable recoveries.

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    November 2022

    RBA Governor Philip Lowe during the hearing at Parliament House on Monday.

    ‘Sorry you listened’ isn’t good enough, Dr Lowe

    The most important tool of a central bank is its independence of action, which has to be earned through credibility. Over time, cracks in it can start to grow.

    Wall Street tumbled on the back of comments from Fed chairman Jerome Powell.

    Lowe should watch Powell to learn how to restore credibility

    Let’s hope the RBA governor was taking notes during Friday’s masterclass in monetary strategy and communications by the US Fed chairman.

    October 2022

    Jim Chalmers.

    Chalmers delivers the weakest fiscal strategy of recent times

    This Treasurer has no budget goals, no rules to discipline himself, and counts not blowing a windfall as a tough decision.

    September 2022

    UK is Australia’s dark alternative future

    Jim Chalmers should treat the mother country’s mini-budget as a kind of dress rehearsal for how things could go here with some bad luck and three or four too many colossal policy blunders.

    Who could argue with getting a couple hundred people in a room to share their thoughts and hash out their ideas?

    Gabfest with no economic plan is easy to be cynical about

    Now it’s all said and done, the government needs to get to work on actually fixing the country’s problems.